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Commissioned by NCOSS and a coalition of peak bodies, ‘A Wave of Disadvantage Across NSW: the Impact of the COVID-19 Recession’ models the impact that rising unemployment will have on social disadvantage in NSW by June 2021.

The report focuses on five key domains of disadvantage: housing, domestic violence, child protection, mental health and education. Equity Economics estimates that  without interventions to strengthen the social safety net by June 2021:

  • The number of 20-24 year olds in NSW experiencing high or very high mental distress will increase by up to 16.8 per cent.
  • Further to the impacts of COVID-19, higher unemployment will lead to rates of domestic violence increasing by up to 5.5 per cent in some regions of NSW.
  • Over 9,000 more people in NSW will be homeless – a rise of 24.0 per cent in the homeless population.
  • Some regions in NSW will experience a 40.5 per cent increase in homelessness.
  • The number of NSW families experiencing housing stress will increase by over 88,000 or 24.3 per cent.
  • There will be 27,447 more children at risk of neglect across NSW, a 24.5 per cent rise due to increased unemployment.
  • Mean NAPLAN scores in Year 9 maths will fall by 23.6 points (3.5 per cent) in 2021 compared to 2019 results, with some areas improving and other areas, including those with a high proportion of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander students falling over 6 per cent.

Read the full report here:


The Impact of the COVID-19 Recession on Regional NSW 

The impact of the COVID-19 recession will be felt to varying degrees across NSW. NCOSS has developed fact sheets for regional SA4 areas highlighting projections across the five key domains of disadvantage.

Central Coast Fact Sheet

Southern Highlands Shoalhaven Fact Sheet

Riverina Fact Sheet

Richmond Tweed Fact Sheet

Outer West and Blue Mountains Fact Sheet

Newcastle and Lake Macquarie Fact Sheet

New England & North West Fact Sheet

Murray Fact Sheet

Mid North Coast Fact Sheet

Illawarra Fact Sheet

Hunter Valley Fact Sheet

Far West Orana Fact Sheet

Coffs Harbour - Grafton fact sheet

Central West Fact Sheet